The US oil and natural gas outlook's dramatic shift from scarcity to abundance potentially could increase the country's geopolitical leverage, prominent former federal officials speaking at a Washington conference agreed on Oct 16.
But its current leaders will need to show they can govern before other countries' top officials consider them credible, several added as the federal government's most recent shutdown entered its final day.
"The United States could go one of two ways—toward an American renaissance driven by ingenuity and economic growth, or into an American decline if we keep failing to govern," observed former US Sec. of Defense Leon Panetta.
"Right now, we're fighting over basic decisions like funding government and paying our bills," he said during a panel discussion at a Securing America's Energy Future conference on lessons learned in the 40 years since the 1973 Arab oil embargo. "This can't help foreign leaders take this country seriously."
"The problems of energy have largely receded because of technological breakthroughs," former US Sec. of Defense and Energy James R. Schlesinger said. "In other areas, the levels of idiocy have risen."
Former US Sec. of State Madeline Albright said energy almost certainly will have a growing impact on a foreign policy based on the country's national interests which should include humanitarian goals. "It's interesting how many foreign policy decisions influenced by energy had unintended consequences," she noted. "We need to better consider how decisions we make today affect future administrations."
Much has changed
Henry Kissinger, who was President Richard M. Nixon's National Security Advisor before becoming his secretary of State, said political structures in the Middle East, where so much of the world's oil continues to be produced, have changed since 1973.
"Terrorists were not a significant factor then," he recalled. "Now, there are groups which reach across borders and, in countries such as Lebanon, have more influence than central governments. They have their own agendas, and we must deal with them."
Retired US Navy Adm. and former National Intelligence Director Dennis Blair said the US was caught badly off guard when the Arab oil embargo began 40 years ago. "We've done some sensible things since, such as establishing the Strategic Petroleum Reserve and increasing vehicle mileage, but that's not enough," he said. "We need to do more right things, such as finding ways to use something besides petroleum in our automobiles."
"I think one of the Obama administration's major leverages will relate to energy," Panetta said. "By 2020, we may not need any foreign oil and gas…. I believe energy may provide the means for the two parties to work together and actually begin to govern."
