Routine analysis of future oil and gas markets amounts to reductionism. It begins with projections of broad factors like population and economic activity. Next it forecasts total energy use, which it apportions among various forms. Then it addresses more-particular questions: How much gasoline will be needed in North America or diesel in Europe? How much supply will be available from countries outside the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries? How much crude oil will OPEC members be able and willing to produce? Less typical is analysis that expands from oil instead of deducing to it. The exercise can illuminate possibilities about future conditions under which oil will be produced...