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Price uncertainty

04/05/2010
In the Mar. 15 Journally Speaking column, "Oil market uncertainty," the issue of frustration over the lack of precision in price forecasts was raised yet again (OGJ, Mar. 15, 2010, p. 16). This has been a cry from the industry ever since the first forecast was attempted.However, this cry is really disingenuous when we accept uncertainty in the physical components, such as pay thickness or projected decline rate in project evaluations and other decisions. The uncertainties noted in the column are a part of the real world and are best accounted for as a probability distribution. After all, the recognition of uncertainty is not only intellectually honest, but maximizes information ...
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