From 1949 until 1973, the average annual price of oil fluctuated within a 7% band, but from 1981 through 2008 the variation leapt to almost 10 times that amount. The 1973 and 1979 oil crises and the sharp escalation and crash of oil prices between 1998 and 2009 introduced a new and seemingly systemic unpredictability to oil prices. The underlying cause is debatable; some think it is cyclical, and there is evidence that it could be chaotic. Certainly, a range of factors has contributed to the recent volatility, including political crises, financial speculation, and a sharp increase in demand from developing economies.1 2Regardless of the reason behind the initial shocks, the variation from...