Incomplete information is a big problem for oil market forecasters. Couple the lack of complete data with a market that responds to factors other than supply and demand, and what are forecasters to do?If oil futures prices fail to behave according to fundamental triggers, such as increasing inventory levels or declining demand, then how can one predict prices to a certain degree of precision?This is the conundrum recently addressed by London-based Centre for Global Energy Studies (CGES)."It is our task as analysts to understand a complex reality, to simplify a confusing picture, to deconstruct the oil market into its constituent parts and reassemble them in such a way as to be able t...