The oil and gas industry is not often thought of as a vehicle for making peace. But in Turkey these days they are thinking otherwise following the start of oil exports from Iraqi Kurdistan.
One commentator said fostering ties between Turkey and Iraq’s Kurdish Regional Government (KRG), marked by oil exports via the Iraq-Turkey pipeline, could give Ankara an upper hand in its fight against terror.
That fight is the one waged by Turkey against the outlawed Partiya Karkeren Kurdistan (PKK). According to Ankara, the PKK is a Kurdish secessionist organization that uses terrorism against civilian and military targets to achieve its political goal of an independent Kurdish state.
Diplomats said steps taken by the KRG to combat the PKK would boost bilateral ties, giving the Turkish regime an edge over the PKK.
Boosting trade?
“The [KRG’s] contributions to our fight against terrorism would reflect positively on our bilateral trade. Turkey is in close dialogue with all the groups in Iraq and we have already seen the fruits,” a Turkish diplomat told local media.
“The PKK does not have the strength it once had and has been losing ground. The [KRG] has seen that cooperation against the PKK will have positive impacts on bilateral ties with Turkey, and it will sell out the PKK and prefer Turkey,” the diplomat said. The debate was triggered last week after the KRG officially started transporting crude oil to the international market, with an initial shipment of 100,000 bbl to Ceyhan from the Taq Taq and Tawke fields.
Essentially, the thinking behind the diplomat’s words suggests that the pipeline connection between the KRG and Turkey will be stronger than any relationship between the KRG and the PKK.
Ultimately, the Turkish diplomat is suggesting that with its oil now in Turkish hands, the KRG would not be willing to support any action of the PKK against Turkey. After all, it would not take much for the Turks to shut down the line.
Stability important
However, another observer, Kurdish journalist Rebwar Karim Wali, warned that the KRG could not do much against the PKK. “Neither the Unites States nor Turkey would want a source of instability in the north that could risk economic interests here,” he said.
But consider something else: the Iraqi government. While it has countenanced the flow of oil from Kurdistan to Turkey, there’s no reason to think it will allow the flow to continue unabated—especially if Iraqi Kurds prove too independent.
“How these oil revenues and contracts will be handled isn’t clear,” said Hazim al-Nuaimi, a political analyst.
“The reason exports were allowed was because of (financial) pressure on the government, but it is obvious it is not comfortable and disagrees,” al-Nuaimi said, adding, “This lays political and economic landmines for the future.”
Baghdad’s political and economic landmines, of course, are being laid right under the KRG’s pipeline to Turkey.
