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The oil price floor

02/25/2008
As the price of crude oil flirts again with its $100/bbl threshold, the question naturally arises: How high can the price go? But brush away the superficialities, and market changes give reason to wonder how low the price might sink.Demand for oil can’t rise as fast as it did during 2004-07 indefinitely. Yes, populous countries like China and India are industrializing, craving oil and other energy. Yes, the global population is growing. Yes, these changes expand the energy market structurally.But supply struggles to keep up. Part of the reason is geologic: The global petroleum resource, however defined, whatever its size, has reached a stage of development at which new supply tends ...
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