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World decline rate

02/04/2008
The Jan. 17, 2008, press release by Cambridge Energy Research Associates (see www.cera.com), which was carried by Reuters, reported the world’s oil supplies were to rise to 112 million b/d by 2017. This rise is in spite of CERA’s other conclusion that the world’s oil fields are declining in capacity at the average rate of 4.5%/year. These conclusions are clearly suspect.Although it is unlikely that global oil production is likely to drop significantly in the next few years, major sustainable increases are equally unlikely. Given the current global production of 86 million b/d and CERA’s 4.5% decline rate, global capacity would have to increase by 7.5 million b/d ea...
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