Refiners should consider Monte Carlo analysis to assess expansion projects

Due to robust growth in the global demand for refined products, refiners often face the tough decision of whether to spend significantly to accelerate expansion projects or stick to existing time frames. This is where a Monte Carlo analysis can frequently prove helpful. Using this analysis allows the refiner to compute thousands of scenarios to reflect the different variables and conditions that can affect an overall project schedule.A Monte Carlo analysis calculates probability durations by representing estimated levels of uncertainty, demonstrating whether a project can be completed in a given time.The fact that there is no way to guarantee that an expedited project will finish early co...

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