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MODELING GULF OF MEXICO LOST PRODUCTION—3: Value of production losses tallied for 2004-05 storms

07/21/2008
In extreme weather, damage to offshore facilities is unavoidable and can take many forms. To better understand the scope of weather risk and catastrophic loss in the Gulf of Mexico, and the factors that impact the redevelopment decisions of operators, we quantify the value of lost production associated with the 2004-05 hurricane seasons under various price and model scenarios. We estimate that the value of lost production from the 2004-2005 hurricane seasons range between $1.3 billion to $4.5 billion, depending upon the scenario assumptions employed. For a future average oil and gas price of $100/bbl and $10/Mcf, the total lost production is estimated to be $3.7 billion. We perform sensit...
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