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Decline rates?
05/12/2008
There has been an abundance of studies and letters to the editor on oil decline rates in recent weeks. The latest article, based on a report from the International Energy Agency, was motivated because “failure since 2004 of non-OPEC production to achieve predicted output gains has created the impression that decline rates are accelerating (OGJ, Apr. 7, 2008, p. 34).” IEA studied hundreds of oil fields in decline and concluded that the net decline rate is 4-5%/year. In February, Cambridge Energy Research Associates presented the results of a decline study of 811 fields and came up with an average global decline rate of 4.5%/year. The key conclusion was that “there is no e...
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