Saudi defense, education keyed to crude price

06/19/2006
Oil prices will fall. The questions are when and by how much. And, oh yes, why.Oil prices will fall when, in some combination, supply rises and demand drops. Dates and amounts? Nobody knows.Confidence seems to be growing that crude prices won’t plummet to $10-11/bbl again as they did in 1998. Economies of large oil-consuming countries so far have held firm against recent price leaps. Demand in China and India is surging.The oil market thus has expanded in an apparently noncyclical way. Supply must struggle to keep up. While the crude price will fall again, therefore, it might not fall as far as it did in the last cycle.So where’s the new price floor?The answer depends heavily ...
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