WATCHING THE WORLD: Iranian sword has two edges

June 12, 2006
The Iranian regime has been brandishing the oil weapon in an effort to persuade countries-especially those on the UN Security Council-to allow its nuclear ambitions.

The Iranian regime has been brandishing the oil weapon in an effort to persuade countries-especially those on the UN Security Council-to allow its nuclear ambitions.

Iran’s leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, issued his threat in a speech to a huge crowd on the 17th anniversary of the death of his predecessor, the Ayatollah Khomeyni, where he underlined the most important asset passed on by the former imam.

“That asset, this invaluable reserve, is our political independence. It is our national self-belief. It is our cultural self-belief. It is the deep faith of our people. It is the courage of our nation and our officials in the face of enemy threats and their not being deceived by enemy praises and inducements.”

Insecure energy

Elsewhere, he said: “In order to threaten Iran, you (America) say that you can secure energy flow in the region. You are wrong. Beware that if you make the slightest mistake about Iran, the energy flow through this region will be seriously in danger.”

The crowd responded in a predictable way, chanting in unison: “God is great, Khamenei is our leader, death to America.”

Khamenei said Iran would not initiate war, saying it “is not a threat to anybody.” He said: “We are committed to our national aspirations and interests, and whoever hurls threats at us will experience the ire of the entire Iranian nation.”

A paper tiger

Located at the entrance to the Persian Gulf, Iran is surely in a theoretical position to disrupt about a third of the world’s oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz.

But there is a huge difference between a theoretical threat and an actual one.

The Iranian leader himself has to be aware that any attempt by his country to impose a blockade of the Strait of Hormuz would play right into the hands of his alleged enemies in the capitals of the western world.

Any such blockade would be a casus belli, and neither Washington nor its allies would need any further arguments for instigating hostilities against Iran.

But Washington did not even need to respond to Khamenei’s threat in terms of war. “I think that we shouldn’t place too much emphasis on a threat of this kind,” said US Sec. of State Condoleeza Rice.

It was enough for her to invoke Economics 101, saying in one interview that “outside of the Security Council there are options, too, with likeminded states to make it difficult for the Iranians to use the international financial system.”

Even more to the point of the lesson, Rice cited Iran’s heavy dependence on oil revenue. “So obviously it would be a very serious problem for Iran if oil were to be disrupted on the market,” she said.

It seems the oil weapon is a two-edged sword. One wonders if the Iranian leaders have enough cents to understand that.