HUBBERT’S: UNRELIABILITY-3: Post-Hubbert challenge is to find new methods to predict production, EUR

04/24/2006
Richard NehringNRG AssociatesColorado SpringsThis is the third and final part of a three-part article that addresses the question: Does the Hubbert method provide a reliable means of predicting future oil production?The key word in this question is “reliable.”We are not asking whether the Hubbert method has provided a few valid predictions in the past, such as Hubbert’s own often cited prediction that US oil production would peak around 1970. We are asking whether the method is sufficiently robust to provide consistently valid predictions across a diverse range of circumstances.Validity in predicting production has two dimensions:1. Predicting when and at what level prod...
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