AAPG recommends probabilistic methods for reserves disclosures

The American Association of Petroleum Geologists president promotes wider reliance than exists now on probabilistic methods of estimating oil and gas reserves.Oil and gas reserves calculations can be presented as a single number (deterministic) or ranges (probabilistic), explained AAPG Pres. Peter R. Rose, founder and senior associate of Rose & Associates LLP, a Houston risk analysis consultancy. Probabilistic analysis involves Monte Carlo simulations, which attach probabilities to values in the range.Deterministic and probabilistic estimates are not necessarily separate. A deterministic estimate is a single value that theoretically fits on a range that could be derived by a probabili...

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