HUBBERT’S UNRELIABILITY-2: How Hubbert method fails to predict oil production in the Permian Basin

Richard Nehring, NRG Associates, Colorado SpringsThis is the second of three parts examining the Hubbert method and the degree to which it has understated production and estimated ultimate recovery using the San Joaquin Valley and Permian basins as examples.Geographically, the Permian Basin consists of West Texas and Southeast New Mexico.For purposes of this analysis it will be defined as Texas Railroad Commission Districts 7C, 8, and 8A, and Chaves, Eddy, Lea, and Roosevelt counties in southeastern New Mexico.The standard geological definition of the Permian Basin also includes several counties in Districts 7B and 9. They are excluded here because they add only small amounts of oil-just ...

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