HUBBERT’S UNRELIABILITY-1: Two basins show Hubbert’s method underestimates future oil production

When will world oil production peak?This question, which only a few years ago was the concern of just several dozen specialists worldwide, is now a front-page issue. The obvious reason for its current salience is the recent doubling of crude oil prices, which show no sign of dropping below $30/bbl.The immediate causes of this increase are readily apparent: rapid recent growth in oil demand in South and East Asia, insufficient investment in oil production capacity (particularly in those countries where such investment directly competes with other politically determined expenditures), and disruptions in oil supply, whether from natural disasters such as hurricanes Katrina and Rita or from p...

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