World oil production capacity could jump by more than 16 million b/d to 101.5 million b/d by 2010, with the addition split "fairly evenly" between members of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and non-OPEC producers, said an executive of Cambridge Energy Research Associates, a subsidiary of IHS Inc.
In a Feb. 15 briefing at the weeklong CERA executive conference in Houston, Peter Jackson, director of oil industry activity, said 7.6 million b/d of the projected increased total liquids production capacity would be from non-OPEC producers, with OPEC supplying 8.9 million b/d. World production of crude liquids is not expected to peak before 2020, he said.
"That is potentially what they can produce. Whether it actually gets to that point is another issue," Jackson told OGJ after his press briefing.
He said producers "obviously are trying to add more light, sweet crude to their stream." However, Jackson said unconventional oil supplies would increase to about 20% of the total potential supply during that same period, from about "16% or so" at present. "The crude stream composition also is evolving in proportions of light, medium, and heavy crude," said Jackson.
CERA's projection is based on a "field by field, country by country" examination of potential production capacity. According to that study, Jackson said, "Major deepwater projects worldwide should show a tremendously strong increase of about 6 million b/d, which is quite a large proportion of the 16 [million b/d] that I'm talking about." That additional production from water depths beyond 2,500 ft will be "from countries like the US in the Gulf of Mexico, Brazil, Angola, and Nigeria," he said.
Non-OPEC production capacity is expected to continue strong through 2010 but then "slow down somewhat from current levels of increase," Jackson said.
OPEC vs. non-OPEC
Within OPEC, Jackson said, "The most significant changes are going to be found in countries like Nigeria, which could show an increase of just over 1 million b/d by 2010. And this is light, sweet crude, which is obviously very much sought after in the current market." Iran and Iraq also are expected to register major gains in production capacity, potentially up by 1 million b/d each, although "Iraq is a little more difficult to make judgments about because of the political situation," he said.
Among the 11 OPEC members, Jackson said, "Really only Indonesia seems to be struggling to expand capacity." However, he said, Indonesia has had some success in slowing its production decline rate.
Among non-OPEC countries, the best prospect for increasing production capacity is in the Caspian region, which could be up by 2.5 million b/d by 2010, Jackson said. He foresees "other significant increases" in Russia and Canada. "We do see flat to declining capacities in countries like Norway, the UK, and Mexico. We get very pessimistic about the rates of declines in these countries, but with the application of new technology [and] better understanding of the hydrocarbon systems in these areas," he said, the production decline rates might be slowed.
Another CERA analyst noted the "strongest price environment ever" in 2004 because of strong demand, primarily in Asia. World demand growth was up by 2.5 million b/d over the previous year. If demand growth continues at that blistering pace in 2005, he said, "then yes, we will have another year of very strong oil prices. If it were to continue beyond 2005, then there would be challenges in bringing on [additional production] capacity in a timely manner."
A caution
However, the analyst said, "Let's be very cautious about saying that we've entered a definitive new era of exceptional demand growth. The reason demand grew so fast last year was because the global economy expanded at the fastest rate since the 1970s."
Such growth could continue "for another year or two, perhaps three," said the second analyst, "but the global economy is cyclical and at some point, we will experience a downturn compared with what we saw last year."
