Oil supply challenges—1: The non-OPEC decline

The world faces challenges rather than impending doom with oil supply. The challenges include a sequence of supply crises likely to develop not when oil production peaks—the subject of much recent controversy—but earlier, when widening gaps appear between demand and sources of supply upon which the world has come to rely.Attempts so far to predict world oil production have depended on assumptions about oil reserves and decline rates, both of which are subject to considerable uncertainty. Too close a reliance on published and proprietary databases of national and oil field reserves can lead to an overly pessimistic view of the world's oil reserves. There is more oil than th...

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