Long-term energy changes
OGJ's excellent series of articles and editorial on depletion have made possible a discussion of this previously taboo topic in a sane, rational, and intellectually rigorous manner. The staff at OGJ has done an enormous service to this country and the world with their policy.
The soundness of your approach is confirmed in your Jan. 3, 2005, p. 26 article "ExxonMobil president sees long-term energy changes." The article discusses the ExxonMobil report "The Outlook for Energy: A 2030 View" released in December 2004.
The report states: "Non-OPEC production is expected to peak in the next 10 years or soU," and illustrates this with a plot of production that shows a non-OPEC crude and condensate production plateau between 2010 and 2015, after which production begins to decline. ExxonMobil believes that OPEC will increase production to meet any increase in demand as well as compensate for diminishing non-OPEC production.
For a major petroleum company to present such a forecast is astonishing, and a credit both to OGJ and ExxonMobil. While I personally doubt that OPEC will be willing or able to increase production as rapidly as needed, that is beside the point. Clearly we are approaching a turning point in the industry.
Not only does ExxonMobil forecast a non-OPEC production plateau, but also it suggests that US automobile efficiency will need to improve significantly (from 21 mpg to 38 mpg) by 2030 to cope with this changed circumstance. For a great oil company to urge substantially higher automobile efficiency is also a major departure from past practice.
I firmly believe that we can cope with a peak in oil production without increasing the call on OPEC oil. The first priority is to acknowledge that we are indeed faced with a problem. The sooner we begin to mandate higher efficiency automobiles, for example, the sooner we can reduce our need for OPEC oil.
I hope OGJ continues its past policy of squarely facing the facts on finite petroleum resources and remains open to discussing solutions to this increasingly urgent challenge.
Alfred Cavallo
Consultant
Princeton, NJ