The Oil Market–2: Issues in the long-term outlook

Conventional wisdom and short-term memory strongly influence oil-market analysis. Recent trends and events influence most forecasts, no matter how sophisticated our econometric models. When the oil-price trend is flat or declining, oil-price forecasts tend to be flat or rising gently. When the oil price is rising, price forecasts tend to be a steeply rising curve.In a tight market, as at present, we thus tend to forecast strong growth in demand, become skeptical about the production capability of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and even about world oil reserves, and see inevitable crises ahead.The question that needs to be asked, now as always, is whether short-term tren...

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