Letters

Jan. 17, 2005
I have read Dr. S. Fred Singer's article "The real oil problem" not once, not twice, but three times and with all due respect, I would have to ask, "What's your point?" Are you questioning the fact that world oil production will inevitably peak or are you concerned that a "real supply reduction" in oil will hurt only poor, undeveloped nations (OGJ, Dec. 20, 2004, p. 10)?

The real oil problem

I have read Dr. S. Fred Singer's article "The real oil problem" not once, not twice, but three times and with all due respect, I would have to ask, "What's your point?" Are you questioning the fact that world oil production will inevitably peak or are you concerned that a "real supply reduction" in oil will hurt only poor, undeveloped nations (OGJ, Dec. 20, 2004, p. 10)?

As to the first issue, Dr. Singer himself wrote in a Letter to the Editor, "So yes: Conventional oil production will inevitably peak—sometime in the future." That is the key problem that we should all be concerned with because it will affect each and every one of us. The fact that M. King Hubbert tries to fine tune the timing of this peak is secondary but worthy of consideration in light of the fact that he correctly predicted US peak oil production some 14 years before it actually happened.

Colin Campbell, Jean Laherrere, Kenneth Deffeyes, and others happen to believe in Hubbert's Peak and have taken up the cause to bring it to the forefront for all to discuss. Whether or not total recoverable oil is a "moving target" or Hubbert's curve should or should not be "Gaussian" as Dr. Singer states, the point is: Hubbert was right before and what if he is right again? If Professor Deffeyes is correct, and I believe he is, then world oil production will peak in the next 3 years.

In regards to Dr. Singer's other issue of whom a real supply reduction will hurt, he talks about the reduction being caused by "war, sabotage, or by an economically irrational decision to shut-in production." Missing from this list is the fact that future reductions will undoubtedly be caused by world oil production not being able to keep up with world oil demand. Regardless of the reason though, all nations and all peoples will be affected.

Finally, Dr. Singer seems to imply that coal and nuclear energy will be the next energy sources after oil, but nowhere does he discuss the role of natural gas. As the president of a policy research group concerned with global warming and greenhouse gases, I would expect Dr. Singer to embrace clean burning natural gas as the next logical energy source. It would be far easier for those poor nations that rely on oil for their everyday needs to make the transition to natural gas rather than a nuclear power plant.
Jeffrey R. Hughes
President
HTK Consultants Inc.
Houston