Hubbert’s graphical-heuristic method (1956)

Author A.J. Cavallo nicely identified the uses, meanings, and limits of the bell-shaped curve for predicting oil production (OGJ, June 6, 2005, and June 13, 2005). I fully agree that the bell-curve (logistic derivative) is not satisfactory for forecasting oil (or natural gas) production in the real world environment. However, it can be useful as a tutorial device at the introductory level.Cavallo’s article begins, “It is well known that M. K. Hubbert (in 1956) successfully predicted the timing (1970) of peak US oil production.... The questions that must be asked are why the (bell-curve) model succeeded for the US and what this can teach us about petroleum production modeling.&...

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