Hubbert’s model: uses, meanings, and limits-2

The mathematical model of M.K. Hubbert successfully predicted the peak of oil production in the US even though the logistic growth curve on which it is based cannot account for the physical, political, and economic factors that govern actual production. The first part of this article introduced a number of those factors, which will be elaborated here to demonstrate their influence on applicability of the model (OGJ, June 6, 2005, p. 22).These and other limitations-including the uncertain nature of resource estimates-must guide use of Hubbert’s model in production forecasts. The model nevertheless provides an important quantitative tool able to demonstrate that a global peak in oil p...

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