Hubbert’s model: uses, meanings, and limits-1

06/06/2005
It is well known that M. K. Hubbert successfully predicted the timing of peak US oil production. Since then, Hubbert’s model has been used extensively to predict peak oil production elsewhere, and the derived bell-shaped curve to describe production has appeared in many publications. However, forecasts of world and regional peak oil and natural gas production using this methodology have usually failed, leading to the implicit belief that such predictions will always fail and that we need not worry about finite resources.The questions that must be asked are why the model succeeded for the US and what this can teach us about petroleum production modeling. A careful examination of Hubb...
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