Hubbert’s model: uses, meanings, and limits-1

It is well known that M. K. Hubbert successfully predicted the timing of peak US oil production. Since then, Hubbert’s model has been used extensively to predict peak oil production elsewhere, and the derived bell-shaped curve to describe production has appeared in many publications. However, forecasts of world and regional peak oil and natural gas production using this methodology have usually failed, leading to the implicit belief that such predictions will always fail and that we need not worry about finite resources.The questions that must be asked are why the model succeeded for the US and what this can teach us about petroleum production modeling. A careful examination of Hubb...

Why Register?

Non-subscribers can only view whitepapers by providing name, home and email address, phone number and other information and comment on/rate articles.

Why Subscribe?

Oil & Gas Journal subscribers with login credentials can access these premium features of OGJ Online:

  • Current Issue – an html version of the current week's issue of Oil & Gas Journal.
  • Past Issues – An Electronic OGJ Archive. A keyword-searchable archive of all issues of Oil & Gas Journal dating back to 1990; also searchable by issue date.
  • Market Journal – a weekly round-up of the oil and gas markets, with observations from leading analysts.
  • Editor's Perspective – a short article of insight and opinion by the Editor of Oil & Gas Journal.
  • OGJ Industry Stats – quick access to current industry statistics from Oil & Gas Journal.
  • OGJ Survey Downloads - quick access to exclusive reports from Oil & Gas Journal.


Subscriber Help or Subscribe

Oil & Gas Journal Subscribers: Have your subscription number (from the mailing label on the cover of your Oil & Gas Journal) and e-mail address ready to set up your online account through Customer Service Assistant.

If you're not an Oil & Gas Journal subscriber, start a subscription and gain access to the subscriber areas of OGJ Online now.

Stay Connected