ESAI: US approaches gasoline demand run

April 4, 2005
January gasoline demand in the US has increased from its year-earlier level in each of the last 9 years but 1, and 2005 appears likely to follow the trend, said Energy Security Analysis Inc., Wakefield, Mass.

January gasoline demand in the US has increased from its year-earlier level in each of the last 9 years but 1, and 2005 appears likely to follow the trend, said Energy Security Analysis Inc., Wakefield, Mass.

ESAI believes gasoline will increase as usual during the April-August driving season.

According to weekly US Department of Energy figures, the January US gasoline demand low occurred mid-month at 8.43 million b/d—up 3.85% from the same period last year.

"Over the last 9 years, the average whole-month demand increase from January to January has been 1.9%, and 1.7% for the last 15 years," said Mark Routt, senior analyst at ESAI. "We are not suggesting that 2005 will see another unforeseen demand-side shock, but even if it is an 'average' one, the US is in for a demand run."

Finished-gasoline inventory figures exclude the increasingly important blendstocks and ethanol required to make gasoline, Routt said. With demand growing seasonally, and deeper than normal refinery maintenance, ESAI expects stocks to draw quickly during the next month or so.