International trade, jeopardized by collapse last September of World Trade Organization negotiations in Cancun, Mexico, received two lifts this month.
First, Robert Zoellick, the US trade representative, took a surprise step toward promptly reviving the trade talks.
Then Rep. Richard Gephardt of Missouri withdrew from the race to become the Democratic Party's candidate for the US presidency.
Gephardt is a standout supporter of organized labor and trade protectionism who already had announced he wouldn't seek reelection to the House of Representatives.
He effectively ended his political career by leaving the presidential race after garnering delegate support of only 10% in the Jan. 19 Iowa caucuses.
One or more of the Democratic candidates still in the hunt might try to claim the prominence Gephardt held in the politics of protectionism.
The Iowa results, however, cast doubt over the wisdom of doing so.
It remains to be seen whether Gephardt's exit will suppress the recently protectionist leanings of US politics in general. Zoellick's move will test the mood.
The trade representative wrote a letter to WTO members requesting agreement by midyear on a deadline for eliminating agricultural subsidies.
The Cancun meeting, part of the Doha round of trade negotiations launched in November 2001, stalled over that issue after 22 developing countries refused to discuss other questions until the US and Europe acted on farm reform.
Zoellick's letter called on WTO to concentrate on eliminating subsidies of all types and urged it to convene again by yearend in Hong Kong.
Pascal Lamy, the European Union's trade commissioner, said talks might restart even earlier. He received support for swift resumption of Doha round negotiations from the Association of South East Asian Nations and India.
The US and Europe thus seem destined to try to work out their differences over farm policy in a year charged by presidential politics in the former and EU enlargement issues in the latter.
It should be interesting. The oil and gas industry should hope they succeed. The extent to which they do will strongly influence the depth and duration of global economic recovery.
(Online Jan. 23, 2004; author's e-mail: [email protected])