The use of renewable energy sources in the US has declined recently, according to US Energy Information Administration data. One might expect the opposite to be true, with oil and gas prices at elevated levels the past couple of years.
The agency's figures show that end-use consumption and net electricity generation of renewable energy sources have declined following a peak in 1996. This group of energy sources includes conventional hydroelectric power, wood, waste, alcohol, geothermal, solar, and wind energy.
OGJ forecasts that the use of renewable energy in the US will increase a bit this year but that a growth spurt is not expected any time soon. More details are in the annual Forecast & Review special report beginning on p. 35.
Alarmism vs. realism
A new book, Climate Alarmism Reconsidered (London: Institute of Economic Affairs, 2003) by Robert Bradley Jr., president of the Institute for Energy Research in Houston, looks at renewable energy sources and the drive to further incorporate them into the energy mix. Focusing on environmental studies regarding climate change, Bradley strives to replace energy alarmism with energy realism.
The administration of President Bill Clinton, including Vice-Pres. Al Gore's eleventh hour rescue of the Kyoto Protocol, sparked momentum for a government-engineered posthydrocarbon energy future, Bradley said. Unprecedented state interest in subsidizing alternative energies emerged in the same period, including a decision by then-Texas Gov. George W. Bush to enact a sizeable renewables quota for the state.
Six years later, the vision of a "new energy future" is in serious doubt. Now, Bradley said, Clinton and Gore are out of office, the Kyoto Protocol hangs by a thread, the developing world has redefined energy sustainability, and hydro, nuclear, and politically favored renewables are encountering environmental limits. Additionally, state laws to impose starter limits on emissions of carbon dioxide—which some see as the main culprit in human-caused climate change—are hindered by consumer demand for plentiful, affordable energy.
Estimates of future anthropogenic-origin catastrophic climate change are converging toward the low end of the range predicted by a International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) model. IPCC is a study group established in 1988 by the United Nations and other world organizations to study energy's relation to climate change.
Bradley argues that the carbon-energy economy has been part of the success of rising living standards, as energy has grown less polluting and more abundant, affordable, and reliable throughout its use, particularly in the second half of the 1900s. He cites an EPA report that said that aggregate air emissions of the six principal air pollutants in the US declined 25% during 1970-2001, when energy consumption grew 42%. Energy intensity—the amount of energy used per unit of economic output—declined during the period as well.
Climate policy
Regarding climate policy, Bradley asserts that there does not need to be a fundamental restructuring of the world's energy economy, given the increasing sustainability of carbon energies in so many respects. He said that the most immediate problem for the Kyoto carbon suppression crusade for many environmentalists is the revitalized rationale for nuclear and hydroelectric power as continuing primary energy sources.
"Both are currently the only large-scale energy alternatives to electricity generated by oil, natural gas, and coal. Yet most environmentalists somewhat arbitrarily and hypocritically have judged the negative characteristics of nuclear and hydropower to outweigh their emission-free advantages," Bradley wrote.
In 2001, 155 times more grid electricity was produced in the US from nuclear and hydro sources than from solar and wind sources combined, he added.
Wind farms and other renewable energy plants have their own critics, and siting them can be as difficult as for fossil-based electric generation plants. In fact, environmental constraints with renewables are a factor contributing to increased market share for carbon energies in the next 20-30 years. Bradley also noted that some mainstream voices in the environmental community are now reconsidering the practicality of an antipetroleum energy policy for developing nations, where alternatives to fossil-based electricity are uneconomic.
He concludes with the warning that environmentalists should reconsider the public policies suggested by acceptance of the climate alarmism position, as energy poverty caused by artificial energy scarcity can translate only into economic and environmental poverty.
"The challenge of energy sustainability is political, not economic or environmental. Government intervention makes energy artificially scarce and expensive and disrupts the natural improvement process. Seen in this light, the major challenge to energy sustainability is the international political movement to cap carbon emissions in the quixotic quest to 'stabilize' the climate," Bradley said.