Deepwater oil productionIvan Sandrea's argument (OGJ, July 26, 2004, p. 18) that the deepwater oil discovery rate may have already peaked and that deepwater oil production may peak within 10 years, rests not upon a thorough analysis of deepwater discovery histories and field size distributions, but upon an assumption that the larger fields tend to be discovered early in the history of exploration of a given area.That assumption is a powerful tool for examining the resource potential of many areas. However, experienced resource assessors know that the validity of this assumption rests on another underlying assumption, namely that all (or nearly all) of the area being examined is both p...

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