Japan's reliance on oil and liquefied petroleum gas will drop, both in the near and distant future, while its reliance upon nuclear energy will continue to increase significantly, according to Japan's Ministry of Economy, Trade, and Industry (METI) in its latest energy supply-demand outlook for fiscal year 2010 and FY2030, said Tomoko Hosoe of FACTS Inc., Honolulu, who summarized METI's outlook in a recent report.
The summary followed FACTS' evaluation of Japan's energy plan in May and its view of the METI forecast in June.
METI's report, the official revision of its June 2001 outlook, considered a base case and two other case scenarios for each of the 2 years it forecast.
These cases, in turn, are compared with actual supply figures for FY2000 (see table). Each fiscal year begins Apr. 1.
Under the base case, Japan's reliance on oil and LPG in 2010 will fall to 46% of total primary energy supply from 50% in 2000 and will decline even further to 42% in 2030. This year METI broke out LPG separately in the table to better indicate its growth, compared with other types of energy supply.
METI's assumptions for Japan's electric power generation for 2010 and 2030 are predicated on the assumption that four nuclear generation units currently under construction will be completed by 2010 for all three cases.
Previously, Japan intended to add 9-12 nuclear reactors by 2010 in an effort to achieve the country's obligation under the Kyoto Protocol. According to METI, as many as 6 additional nuclear generation units may be added during 2010-30 if there is sufficient demand. The share of nuclear energy in Japan's total primary energy will increase to 14% in 2010 and 15% in 2030, from 13% in 2000, the study indicated.
The share of natural gas also will increase steadily to 15% in 2010 and 18% in 2030, compared with 13% in 2000.
While use of gas increases, Japan's dependency on coal will decline—to 17% in 2030 from 18% in 2000 and 2010.
Case comparisons
METI bases its Case 1 for supply distribution in 2010 on assumptions that current measures for reducing greenhouse gas emissions will continue to be implemented "studiously," Hosoe said.
The "oil-LPG" and the "new energy-others" categories would differ from the base case under this scenario, with the New energy-others share increasing to 4%, from 2% in 2000, compared with 3% under the base case. Meanwhile, the share of oil-LPG would fall further, to 45% from 50% in 2000, compared with 46% under the base case. Japan's total energy supply in 2010 under Case 1 would fall to 584 million kl of oil equivalent (kloe).
Case 2 for 2010 is based on METI's assumptions that Japan will employ even more-advanced measures for reducing greenhouse gas emissions, in which case the shares of oil-LPG and natural gas would be even lower than in Case 1.
Meanwhile, the shares of nuclear and new energy-others would be higher than in Case 1. Total supply would drop to 569 million kloe.
Japan scenarios in 2030
In the 2030 Case 3 scenario, METI assumes precise implementation of advanced energy and conservation measures, Hosoe said. Total energy supply would be 536 million kloe, compared with 607 million kloe under the base case.
Under Case 3, shares of oil-LPG and natural gas would be lower, at 40% and 16%, respectively, compared with 42% and 18% under the base case. On the other hand, the share of nuclear would rise to 18%, compared with 15% under the base case.
The Case 4 scenario for 2030 is based on the assumptions that Japan will achieve further penetrations by new alternative energy. The country's total energy supply would be 609 million kloe.
Under Case 4, the share of new energy-others would jump to 7% in the total supply, up from 3% in 2010, compared with 4% under the 2030 base case.
The share of natural gas would be 16%, compared with 18% under the base case.
