CERA: World faces 50% chance for $50/bbl oil in 50 days

08/23/2004
The world is currently facing a "50/50 oil market" in that there exists a 50% chance that the price of oil will reach $50/bbl within the next 50 days, according to Daniel Yergin, chairman of Cambridge, Mass.-based Cambridge Energy Research Associates (CERA)."A price spike to $50[/bbl] would be likely to occur if one or more supply disruptions removes 500,000-750,000 b/d from the market for several weeks," Yergin contends. This is possible because "the world has one of the smallest cushions ever for absorbing a loss of supply, while demand growth is the strongest in a generation. These conditions mean the world oil market is even tighter now than it was during the 1973 oil crisis," he said...
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