Case to be made for $30-40/bbl oil through 2005

07/26/2004
There is a compelling case to be made for oil prices remaining at $30-40/bbl (New York futures contract) through next year.The lower end of that range would suggest just the state of the physical fundamentals of oil markets today. The higher end rolls in a premium for fear of supply disruptions.Demand surgeThe principal driver in the oil market today is the surprisingly persistent high demand level. Perhaps it should not be so surprising, given a booming global economy plus the fact that oil prices still are well below their inflation-adjusted peaks of the late 1970s and early 1980s.But the demand surge is especially strong in the US and China, the world's two biggest oil consumers. A...
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