Letters

June 14, 2004
Bob Williams' proposal for a global hydrocarbon inventory system was a high point of the Hubbert's Peak panel session at the OTC.

Hubbert's Peak

Bob Williams' proposal for a global hydrocarbon inventory system was a high point of the Hubbert's Peak panel session at the OTC. I hope that progress can be made on this front.

It is commendable that Oil & Gas Journal has entered the fray on this issue. Any improvement upon the existing global production and reserve database will be a blessing, and truly reliable data would give us a shot at resolving whether or not we have a serious problem on our hands. Only then can there be a rational response. Without sound analysis, I am afraid that some politicians in Washington, Brussels, and elsewhere will go off half-cocked and make things worse.
R. Patrick MacDaniel

Azerbaijan production estimates

In 1993, the World Bank issued the first independent estimates of Azerbaijan production potential moving from the then current 220,000 b/d to peak at 1 million in 2004. By 1995, the European Commission had production starting at 190,000 b/d peaking in 2006 at 800,000 b/d (a study I took part in). Move on 4 years to 1999 and Wood Mackenzie predicted a movement from 200,000 b/d to peak at 1.4 million b/d in 2010. In 2001, FACTS Inc. group had the peak further delayed to 2015. At this stage I postulated (tongue in cheek) that in the foreseeable future we may see the production stuck at 200,000 b/d and the boom always a decade away.

The article on Caspian pipelines by Wood Mackenzie (OGJ, May 10, 2004, p. 52) predicts that Azerbaijan production will take off from about 310,000 b/d now (latest figures for 2003) to peak at some 1.4 million b/d in 2009. The time range of the estimates has been largely affected by the uncertainty of pipeline construction. It seems at last we are moving forward and, assuming pipeline security is maintained, we may be round the corner at last.
Mike Lillico
Mallorca, Spain