World oil production capacity model suggests output peak by 2006-07

Simulations of the World Oil Production Capacity (Wocap) model suggest that global oil production will peak at a point near 81 million b/d well before the end of the decade, likely by 2006-07Wocap was developed mainly during 1997-2000. The model's cornerstone consisted of the conventional oil reserves estimates developed by Colin J. Campbell that added to a global total of 1.9 trillion bbl.1 Click here to enlarge imageAfter the first successful simulation runs in 2001, Wocap was modified in 2002 to introduce political intangibles in most countries belonging to the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries. In 2003, an attempt was made to usher in global geopolitics within the mod...

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