Alternative fuels
I feel I must respond to Mr. Arlie Skov's comments regarding global oil production and forecasting (OGJ, Dec 23, 2002, p 12). Those of us who believe in King Hubbert's projections and try to make the public aware of them are not "gloom and doom," or "the sky is falling," pessimists. We are realistic geoscientists and engineers who believe that now is the time to start preparing for a viable alternative to crude oil.
Those alternatives are many and varied and range from wind power to fuel cell technology with a little bit of everything in between. Each alternative should be evaluated on its own merits and some will make more economical sense than others. Endorsing such alternatives, however, is not to say that we are forecasting the end of the world. Simply put, the US—along with a lot of other countries—will forever be dependent on foreign OPEC oil, and that dependence makes all of us vulnerable.
One of the most logical and abundant alternatives in the US is natural gas, yet we are forced to import almost 1 bcfd of liquefied natural gas (LNG) from abroad because the federal government won't allow E&P companies to drill offshore California, Florida, and the East Coast. Over a 5-year period, LNG imports into the US grew from a little over 40 bcfd in 1996 to almost 240 bcf in 2001. In the meantime, natural gas prices are at an all time high, yet we can't seem to keep 900 rigs busy. To quote a familiar phrase, "what's wrong with this picture?"
Unfortunately for the American consumer, the rules of supply and demand that Mr. Skov mentioned in his letter will affect all of us very soon. In my opinion, that affect will come in the form of higher heating bills this winter and higher cooling bills this summer. It will also result in higher gasoline prices and ultimately higher prices for goods and services as a result of the increased cost of diesel and jet fuel. And this will occur because our demand for oil and gas in this country is increasing, but our supplies are dwindling.
Jeffrey R. Hughes, President
HTK Consultants Inc.
Houston
