Future oil prices likely higher than historic $18-22/bbl consensus

09/29/2003
This article will show that, despite the concerns of rising oil production from Russia and the Caspian Sea region and the possible further development of Iraqi reserves, the mean price of oil going forward is likely to be higher than the historic $18-22/bbl range of consensus.There will still be meaningful volatility, perhaps even increased volatility, as the market adjusts to changing expectations. In fact, the common knowledge about the $18-22/bbl historic price range is misleading. Despite swings in sentiment, economic cycles, and supposed bouts of collapse and unity within the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries during the past 26 years, West Texas Intermediate crude oil, wh...
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