Weather forecasting has never been an exact science. In some areas of the world, people inspect "woolly worms" to predict the severity of the coming winter. It is believed the thickness and color of the critter's hairy bands foretell accurately the type of winter approaching.
In other places, however, the moon is studied for weather forecasting because of its impact on "atmospheric tides." Some people believe the moon is the key to short and long-term weather patterns.
If chasing worms and staring at the moon is too much trouble, the Old Farmer's Almanac allows you to sit in the comfort of your living room and read what is going to happen months in advance. For instance, Old Farmer's Almanac predicts snowfall this winter will be below normal in eastern Oklahoma south through the Dallas-Fort Worth Metroplex. That sounds good for those of us in that region who battle occasional icy roads to get to work, but looking outside—only a few days into winter—we can see they already missed badly on that one.
Weather prediction
For economic reasons, mankind has wanted to know what tomorrow's weather would be like since the beginning of time. Should the fishing fleet sail? Should wells be dug or will the river have enough water? Will the crops fail for lack of rain? Knowing what's ahead allows for more-accurate planning.
The last century saw weather forecasting become a true science. With better communications and standard methods of reporting weather conditions, patterns could be seen developing and relationships between events understood. By the mid-1960s, satellites, radar, and computers were regularly being used as research and forecasting tools.
The oil business
It has been estimated that weather affects about 20% of the US economy, and 70% of all businesses face some degree of weather risk. And no industry understands the need for weather prediction better than the petroleum industry. The same questions keep popping up each year: Will the winter be mild or cold? Where will it be the coldest? Are fuel supplies adequate? What will it cost us to keep supply and demand in ballance? What about distribution?
For those questions and many more, help is on the way.
Energy Weather Project
The University of Oklahoma at Norman, Okla., is well-known for its expertise in both energy and meteorology, so it was inevitable that the two would somehow be put together. The Energy Weather Project was created about 6 months ago to satisfy a demand for a database product that relates weather to energy.
"The project's objective in its simplest form," said Dennis O'Brien of Sarkeys Energy Center at the university, "is to research and analyze the correlations between weather and energy variables." Researchers want not only to address the impact of weather on energy but eventually to address the longer-term impacts of climate change on the petroleum industry.
O'Brien leads a team comprising four members representing energy economics and meteorology. The group recently reported its findings on the winter fuels market at the 2002 International Energy Policy Conference in Oklahoma City. A few points were:
Heating oil. With storage levels at close to their 5-year lows, and temperatures in demand regions averaging normal through the forecast period (first quarter 2003), anticipate pricing for heating oil will rise slightly from last year.
Natural gas. Record inventory levels, combined with warmer-than-normal temperatures in parts of the US, will place downward pressure on natural gas prices.
Propane. With stocks for propane at the top end of the normal 5-year range, and temperatures in demand regions warmer than normal, retail propane prices will remain at about $1.10/gal.
Another step
There is still more news on the weather map from Norman. On Nov. 15, 2002, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration broke ground for its new National Weather Center. This 244,000 sq ft building will house one of the largest weather research centers in the world, and certainly the primary one for severe storm research, prediction, forecasting, and warning.
The facility should be up and running in 2006 at a cost of about $67 million.
So put the worms and moon charts away. We predict good things are ahead for industry planners.