Watching Government - Great Expectations

July 28, 2003
The next 3 months are critical to turning around the security situation in Iraq, according to a new report by Washington, DC-based Center for Strategic and International Studies.

The next 3 months are critical to turning around the security situation in Iraq, according to a new report by Washington, DC-based Center for Strategic and International Studies. Unless public safety increases, the US-led rebuilding effort faces an uphill battle, CSIS said (see related story, p. 28).

A CSIS-led team recently visited Iraq at the request of US Sec. of Defense Donald Rumsfeld and Ambassador Paul Bremer, head of the Pentagon's Office of Reconstruction and Humanitarian Assistance, the agency overseeing rebuilding.

Window closing

"The Iraqi population has exceedingly high expectations, and the window for cooperation may close rapidly if they do not see progress on delivering security, basic services, opportunities for broad political involvement, and economic opportunity," CSIS said. Analysts urged US policymakers to "turbo-charge" reconstruction efforts by being "more agile and flexible," and providing greater funding and personnel. CSIS's recommendations include decentralize reconstruction efforts, expand Iraqi ownership of the rebuilding process, provide immediate basic economic and social services, improve communication with Iraqis and within the US-led Coalition Provisional Authority, and mobilize a broader international coalition.

US officials say they are working hard to include Iraqis in reconstruction efforts and want United Nations support for an international peacekeeping force. But the US can't solve everything, according to one high- level Pentagon official.

Deputy Sec. of Defense Paul Wolfowitz went on his own fact-finding mission of Iraq earlier this month with the message that the Iraqis themselves must help move the process forward.

"You can do it. We can help you do it. But we can't do it for you," he told local Iraqi officials in the northern Iraqi oil city Mosul, according to the Associated Press.

Money, money

The US needs to be spending a lot more money, and it should ask the US Congress and its international allies for help, CSIS said. Congress this year gave the White House about $74 billion for unbudgeted war-related costs, but it won't be enough to cover Iraq's reconstruction, experts say.

CPA currently has four sources of revenue: appropriated funds, oil revenue, vested assets in the US, and assets that have been seized in Iraq.

CSIS said it is "highly likely" that CPA needs more money in the upcoming fiscal year that starts Oct. 1. They said oil revenue projections for the next few years are low, with oil production expected to reach 1.5 million b/d by December and 2.5 million b/d by the end of 2004.

CPA expects to earn about $5 billion in oil revenue over the next 5 months, but this may prove optimistic if security problems persist and oil infrastructure sabotage continues.

According to Raad Alkadiri, an analyst with the Washington, DC, office of PFC Energy, much of Iraq's oil production lies in politically unstable areas. "Unless the CPA can adapt and show tangible improvements in the areas that matter most to the Iraqis, opposition to the occupation will grow and stabilizing the situation will become harder," Alkadiri said.