Gas Supply Problems

Approximately 36,000 Mw of new natural gas generation is scheduled to come on line in North America during March through September 2003. Of that, about 94% of the capacity is located in the US, 4% in Canada, and 2% in Mexico. These additions include a mix of combined-cycle units (79% of the total Mw) and combustion turbine units (21%).1We assume an average efficiency of 54% and an average run-time of 21 hr/day for the combined-cycle units, and 38% and 14 hr/day, respectively, for the combustion turbine units.2 Hence, these additions alone will add 1.7 tcf/year (4.6 bcfd) to the natural gas demand in North America.Some reliability assessment studies are careful to cover all possibilities. ...

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