Three world oil forecasts predict peak oil production

05/26/2003
Forecasts of the imminent depletion of oil are as old as the industry itself, and that has not changed. What has changed is the growing amount of historical oil data now available to test the forecasts.This article examines three world oil forecasts against a reference database provided by the oil industry itself. Each of the forecasts predicts the year when world oil production will peak and the post-peak production change rate.If the historical data are consistent with the forecasts, then they are said to support the forecasts. Otherwise they do not support the forecasts.Three indicators (measures) are used to test the world oil forecasts:Oil production acceleration.The peaking rate of ...
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