As war rages in the Middle East, military analysts said that Iraq's navy poses a minimal threat to shipping in the Persian Gulf, but attacks by the Al Qaeda terrorist network, led by Osama bin Laden, are a more likely problem.
Also, insurance rates for oil tankers trading in the gulf may see a steep rise following reports of extensive mine-laying by Iraqi naval forces, on top of other perceived risks in the region, according to underwriters based in London.
"Reports of mining will actively focus the attention of insurance underwriters," Angus Wilson, a specialist in war and hull coverage for Ascot Underwriters, told OGJ Online. "Rates would doubtless go up, depending on the accuracy of the information," he said (OGJ Online, Mar. 24, 2003).
Al Qaeda strikes feared
US and UK naval commanders fear Al Qaeda operatives could make suicide strikes against ships in the gulf like those against the US Navy destroyer USS Cole off Yemen in October 2000 and the French supertanker Limburg off Yemen in October 2002. In both cases, militants approached ships near land in explosive-laden boats and detonated them.
Following its attack on the Limburg, Al Qaeda made no secret of its plans to undermine the world's economy by mounting an attack on marine oil transport routes.
"We can imagine the magnitude of the dangers that threaten the Western economic lifeline," Al Qaeda said in a statement then. The Middle East, said Al Qaeda, sits on the West's "largest (oil) reserves, produces its largest quantities (of oil imports), and has (control of) all its channels and routes.
"The strike on the French oil tanker was not an incidental strike at a passing tanker but a strike on the international oil-carrying line in the full sense of the word."
Al Qaeda even drew reference to the cost-effectiveness of its operation, saying that if a boat that did not cost $1,000 "succeeded in destroying an oil tanker of this size, then we can imagine the magnitude of the dangers that threaten the Western economic lifeline."
Risk levels
Determining the level of risk in the region is especially difficult because almost all ports say that operations are proceeding normally, with no disruption to traffic.
Even the Iraqi navy poses little threat, according to US Navy Rear Adm. Clyde Marsh, who is commanding US Task Force 51, which provides close-range air support to Marines with Harrier jets and helicopters.
"I don't see a great naval threat—most of it has been neutralized," Marsh said, adding that, "Most of the Iraqi navy (ships) have not come out of the Khawr Abd Allah (waterway) area. There are some vessels in the KAA—I don't know the numbers, and I don't know if they are waiting to come out or not. But it is possible that they have been abandoned."
Still, no one can discount the possibility of attacks on shipping that could be launched by regular or even irregular components of Iraq's military forces, including remnants of its navy. Attacks could be mounted by the special security organization of Iraqi President Saddam Hussein or even the Saddam Fedayeen, which mounted stiff opposition to US and UK forces in the port of Umm Qasr and around the oil export facilities of the Faw Peninsula during the Mar. 22 weekend.
Coalition forces on 'high alert'
Even as US Navy officials said Iraqi oil terminals were ready to resume export operations, coalition naval forces were put on high alert against suicide attacks Mar. 26 after Iranian gunboats captured an Iraqi speedboat packed with 1,000 lb of high explosives.
Three other Iraqi speedboats, which it is feared may contain similar amounts of explosive, escaped when Iranian forces engaged Iraqis at the mouth of the Shatt-al-Arab River at the northern end of the gulf.
The explosives were discovered after one of the Iraqi boats was run aground during the confrontation with the Iranian patrol vessels.
The discovery of the Iraqi speedboats is the first definite physical evidence that suicide attacks are being planned in the area, and comes as US Navy officials announced that Iraq's oil export terminal of Mina al-Bakr is ready to resume operations after escaping efforts at sabotage.
US forces secured the gulf facility in the early stages of fighting. Its throughput was around 1 million b/d of oil before the US-led war forced an end to exports.
"Everything is good to go in that regard," said US Navy Commander Kevin Aandahl, referring to the possibility of restarting operations from the facility that exported more than half of Iraq's United Nations-supervised oil sales.
The port of Khor al-Amaya, recently activated by Baghdad to carry out an illicit oil-smuggling scheme, has also been secured by US forces, Aandahl told Reuters.
He said US forces, in gaining control of the area, had discovered signs of attempted sabotage at Mina al-Bakr.
"In some areas of the oil (loading) platforms there were preparations made by Iraqi forces to blow those terminals," he said. "They had explosives on there...they were wired in some places."
Efforts are now being made to safeguard access to the UN-authorized export outlet, said Aandahl.
"We want to make sure, most of all, that the situation is secure and there are no bad guys around," said Aandahl. "Our focus right now is to make sure that whatever traffic is in that area is there for a good reason, not a bad reason."
That focus, already on mines laid by Iraqi forces in the region's waters, will now have to include the threat of suicide attacks similar to those launched by operatives of the Al Qaeda terrorist network off Yemen.
Insurance rates to climb
"Reports of mining will actively focus the attention of insurance underwriters," Angus Wilson, a specialist in war and hull coverage for Ascot Underwriters, told OGJ. "Rates would doubtless go up, depending on the accuracy of the information," he said.
UK Defense Minister Geoff Hoon confirmed the presence of mines in Iraqi waters during a Mar. 24 press conference in London. To open the port of Umm Qasr, Hoon said it would be necessary to sweep the Khawr Abd Allah waterway for mines.
"Owing to the extent of Iraqi mine-laying," he said, "this may take a number of days."
Hoon did not detail the extent to which Iraqi forces had laid mines or the time it might take to clear them. But he left no doubt that mining had been undertaken, and that it poses a danger to shipping.
"I am not going to allow ships into a dangerous port area whilst there is still fighting going on, nor are we going to take ships into a waterway that has been heavily mined," he said.
Hoon's comments followed a report by Australian naval officials confirming the discovery of mines and other weapons aboard several Iraqi vessels that were stopped and searched by coalition naval vessels in the region (OGJ Online, Mar. 25, 2003).
