Oil price collapse also a reasonable possibility

Last week, this column sought to analyze what appears to be a strong case for oil prices remaining above $30/bbl for the rest of the year.Can an equally strong case be made for the prospect of an oil price collapse this year? It certainly remains a reasonable possibility.Oil markets reacted to the brief Mar. 12 meeting of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries in a somewhat surprising fashion. OPEC refusing to endorse officially a pledge to produce all out in case of war—instead just giving vague assurances about meeting supply needs—ordinarily would be perceived as a bullish factor for prices, judging from past market behavior. Instead, oil prices fell. In the past...

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