Strong case for $30+/bbl for most of 2003

The strong likelihood that war will erupt in Iraq in the coming weeks warrants fresh analysis of how the oil market will respond to a US-led invasion.Michael C. Lynch, formerly of DRI-WEFA Inc. and now heading up a new consulting company, Strategic Energy & Economic Research Inc., Winchester, Mass., has outlined some invasion-related scenarios and their respective oil price impacts:Saddam Hussein will try to destroy most of the Iraqi oil fields. Loss of capacity is projected at anywhere from 400,000 b/d to 100%, with the price impacts at $5-15/bbl.Oil prices will not drop at the war's outset, as in 1991. Then, supplies already had been removed by Iraq's invasion of Kuwait, and the...

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