Demand, supply will determine when world oil output peaks

Projecting the availability and cost of oil 20-40 years out is an important but uncertain task.Periodically various authors project a significant shortfall of oil availability within a few years. A recent example is a March 1998 "Scientific American" article by Campbell and Laherrere.1 Professional journals have also published this information as cited in the article.The authors suggest that OPEC overestimated its reserves by a significant amount beginning in the late 1980s, and they note the falling rate of worldwide oil discovery.The purpose of this article is to view these observations from a somewhat different perspective.A unifying theme in these discussions is the frequently observe...

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