'Bear trap' looming for misguided oil markets?

The events of the first half of November suggest that oil markets and geopolitical realities are on divergent paths.And the result may be that oil markets are backing into a "bear trap."In response to Iraqi President Saddam Hussein's acceptance of the United Nations Security Council resolution mandating the return of UN weapons inspectors to Iraq, oil prices immediately fell to a 5 month low in New York and an 8 month low in London. By mid-November oil prices had fallen nearly 20% in 6 weeks. The decline is ap- parently a response to rising OPEC production and to diminishing fears of a military campaign against Iraq—with the latter buttressed by Baghdad's apparent cave-in.Bu...

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