Come January, the faces on Capitol Hill will change, but gridlock may stay.
With Republicans in charge of Congress and the White House, some company executives are hoping for dramatic changes in the way policymakers administer public lands and enforce environmental rules.
Whether those changes occur is still unknown. Republicans narrowly reclaimed the Senate in midterm elections, but not by a wide enough margin to stop Democrats from stalling controversial legislation. And it may be premature to assume that new Republican senators will automatically endorse industry's agenda. Public opinion is a powerful force that transcends party affiliation. It's a phenomenon industry is reminded of each year when Congress bans offshore drilling.
Even for issues that the administration can act upon without Congress, the courts can create obstacles, as has been done with public lands access.
No clear mandate
Before the new Congress starts, lawmakers were expected back Nov. 12 for a brief "lame duck" session with Democrats in control. Industry expects an "energy-lite" bill may pass that includes two popular provisions: pipeline safety and nuclear plant insurance.
Beyond that small package, no one knows whether a larger energy reform bill can survive next year. Consensus may be even harder to reach, given the political makeup of the 108th Congress. The new Senate will include 47 Democrats, 51 Republicans, 1 independent, with one race still undeclared. In the House, Republicans will expand their majority slightly, with the current tally at 228 Republicans, 203 Democrats, 1 independent, and 3 remaining undeclared races. On the state level there will be 25 Republican governors; Democrats will control 24 states, and one race is still undecided.
Leadership posts
Party leadership is not expected to change much, with Trent Lott of Mississippi the Senate majority leader and Rep. Dennis Hastert of Illinois speaker of the House.
Companies now are scrutinizing who will be the next Senate committee chairmen. The most closely watched switch is in the Environment and Public Works Committee, with Sen. James Inhofe (R-Okla.) likely replacing James Jeffords (I-Vt.) as chairman.
Endorsed by industry and vilified by environmental groups, Inhofe always voices strong suspicions over the cost-effectiveness of federal clean air and water rules. A case in point is his comment regarding the Environmental Protection Agency's 1997 tougher smog and soot standards in which he told an industry group that regulators use "emotions instead of science." Jeffords by contrast, consistently champions stricter environmental standards.
On the funding side, Ted Stevens (R-Alas.) is expected to chair the Appropriations Committee, a position previously held by Robert Byrd (D-W.Va.). Both men are considered moderates, although growing fiscal pressures may force Stevens to be less generous. Meanwhile, there may be only subtle policy shifts if Sen. Pete Domenici (R-NM) oversees the Senate Energy and Natural Resources Committee. His Democratic counterpart Jeff Bingaman, also from New Mexico, supported many of the same kind of domestic production incentives championed by Domenici.
