I read with interest the editorial entitled "Time to Pick Sides" (OGJ, July 8, 2002, p. 19). I've long had the opinion that the global warming debate was suffering from a plethora of bias, input from complex models, possible neglect of important parameters like solar radiation, and political agendas. The debate appears to be short on useful science, for all the bright people working on it and writing about it.
In the refining industry, folks like to look at the raw data before making up their mind. A couple of charts can go a long way in showing a connection between cause and effect. The only raw data I have seen on global warming is charts showing trends of average land temperatures in an article on global warming (? subject), and water temperature in the mid-Pacific in an article on El Niño. These were in two different copies of National Geographic, about the years 1996-98. The sources were not quoted.
OGJ has a reputation for compiling useful and factual information. How'd you like to take on this project: Find the raw data on the items in the editorial: 1. Greenhouse gas composition in atmosphere (don't forget water), 2. Percent greenhouse gas due to human activity, natural causes, unknown, 3. Temperature measurements at earth surface, 4. Air temperature, and 5. Ocean temperature. Then publish some charts, showing 50-year trends, with discussion.
This would be tremendously valuable. The media and general public are not slow in understanding charts like this, nor in drawing conclusions. There would need to be some explanation of the data represented and its source. It would also be helpful to consider weighting the data in terms of the total heat capacity. I suggest to look at the weight x heat capacity of the top 50 ft of continents (heat transfer by conduction, slow), the top 300 ft of oceans (heat transfer by convection, faster), and the total atmosphere (also convection). I worked out an "engineering estimate" of these. The ocean is the biggest heat sink-until we see warming in there, we don't need to get too concerned.
Editor's note: Please see OGJ, Nov. 12, 2001, pp. 20-26; Oct. 29, 2001, pp. 22-36; and July 16, 2001, pp. 20-26.
Tom Creswell
Process Engineer, P.S.I
Shell Bakersfield Refinery
Bakersfield, Calif.
e-mail [email protected]
