Impending world oil shortage is real
According to a Mar. 3, 2002, story in the Houston Chronicle, "Half of American's believe there is a real energy shortage in this country" while "last summer, only a third thought the shortage was real." Recent wild price swings in natural gas as well as gasoline at the pump have most surely brought this subject to light. Much has been written lately about upcoming domestic and world oil shortages, yet most individuals choose to not deal with the problem.
In 1956, a Shell Oil Co. geologist named M. King Hubbert did a study on US oil production up until that point and concluded that domestic oil production would peak in the early 1970s. Peak production in the US, as we now know, peaked in 1970 at 9.5 million b/d. Today, daily oil production in the US is less than 6 million b/d and still going down. Meanwhile, domestic consumption is 18.5 million b/d and still going up which means we have to import 10.5 million b/d to keep up. (The other 2 million b/d comes from natural gas liquids.)
Hubbert, as it turned out, was right on target with his 1956 prediction, and he based it solely on science and oil and gas discoveries made up until that time. If he continues to be correct, the US will be out of oil, for all intents and purposes, by the year 2025.
Hubbert also made a prediction about world oil production. Using the same type of criteria, but on a global scale, he predicted that world oil production would peak in 2005 and ultimately the world could run out of conventional oil by 2050. Of course, not every oil producing country will run out at the same time, but at current production levels, the UK will run out first, followed by the US, and then Norway. Among those to run out last will be Saudi Arabia, Iran, Iraq, and Kuwait.
The US is (and will be) dependent on foreign oil, as will a lot of other countries, in the years ahead. Opening up the ANWR and the California and Florida coasts to new drilling is urgently needed but will not alleviate the problem. We need to be thinking about where we will be importing our oil from in the coming years and then start planning for a gradual phasing out of conventional oil entirely.
The next logical fuel source is natural gas and we should be opening up more areas to drilling for natural gas as soon as possible along with building more natural gas-fired power generation plants.
The US, as well as the rest of the world, has an impending problem. The key is to start talking about the problem and making others aware of it. The end of conventional oil doesn't have to be the end of the world, just the end of an era.
Jeffrey R. Hughes
President
HTK Consultants Inc.
Houston
Banned drilling
Congressman David Bonior, Democrate Whip from Michigan, introduced an amendment banning drilling of any new gas or oil wells in, or on, the shores of the US portion of the Great Lakes.
That amendment became a part of the energy and water appropriation bill for Year 2002, which will allow Canadian gas companies to enjoy a monopoly on natural gas removal from under the Great Lakes.
The bill is potentially contrary to our interest in that a well drilled in Canada can tap into any gas reservoir that straddles the border, taking gas from the US side of the border via the Rule of Capture doctrine.
Loss of any natural gas reserves is a threat to our future energy picture.
Jack Kruppenbach
New Holland, Pa.
