Gasoline demand this summer in the United States will be at its lowest level in 11 years while the price sets a record high. What gives?
The price of crude oil, that's what.
The Energy Information Administration projects driving-season gasoline demand at 8.8 million b/d. The April-September average hasn't been that low since 2001.
The record year for summertime gasoline use was 2007, at 9.4 million b/d.
Restraining consumption this year are vehicle fuel-efficiency improvements and high prices.
But markets change quickly.
On Apr. 23, the US average retail price of gasoline slipped below its year-earlier to $3.87/gal.
It was the third consecutive week of decline from the 2012 peak of $3.94/gal on Apr. 2.
And although the price was only a penny below its level of the same week a year earlier, the year-to-year decline in gasoline price was the first since October 2009.
The reason, of course, is that the price of crude has receded.
The high mark so far this year in the US futures price for light, sweet crude came on Feb. 24 at $109.77/bbl. Since then the crude price has been as low as $101.02/bbl on Apr. 10. Lately it's been a little above $103/bbl.
Those prices hardly mean crude oil has gone cheap. They do indicate a turn away from tight conditions that prevailed last year now that Libyan production has reclaimed most of the ground it lost to political disruption and increased supplies from Saudi Arabia are reaching markets.
Other factors influence the crude price, of course: economic news from Europe and the US, demand signals from China, the Iranian government's mood about nuclear energy.
But market fundamentals in the first quarter indicate what the International Energy Agency this month described as "a clear shift from the seemingly relentless tightening evident over the prior ten quarters."
If that shift continues, observers who just a few weeks ago called $5/gal gasoline imminent in the US will have to adjust their planning horizons.
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