Steady growth seen for Canadian bitumen output despite increasing needs for pipeline capacity, gas

05/07/2012
Under especially favorable conditions of economics, politics, and technology, production of bitumen from the Canadian oil sands can reach 3.9 million b/d in 2020 and peak at 6.8 million b/d in 2038 before receding to 6.2 million b/d by 2045. More likely production rates, in the reference-case scenario of a study published in March by the Canadian Energy Research Institute, are 3.3 million b/d by 2020 and 5.4 million b/d by 2045 (Fig. 1). For perspective, the 2045 bitumen projection in the reference case is slightly below last year's average production of crude oil and lease condensate by the US, the 2011 output rate of which ranked third among all producing countries (OGJ, Dec. 5, 2011, ...
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